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After this week, the Climate Correspondent team is taking a short summer break. We are coming back on September 16 with new energy and fresh stories from our corners of the world. Until then…
Dry fruits being sold at Khari Baoli market in Old Delhi - Image credit: Wikimedia Commons
My Indian friends like to say that when you live here you are never lonely. As families grow, more people move - sometimes squeeze - under the same roof: Children, grandparents, aunties, maids that have helped bring up multiple generations of the same family.
Even if you are not blessed with a full house, your everyday life in India is punctuated by social exchanges. Something breaks in the house; the neighbour will help. For groceries, a fruit or vegetable cart pulled by a walla (seller) will stop at your doorstep and you’ll catch it on the fly.
From the maid who helps out in the house, to the garbage collector who knocks door to door, and the construction workers that assemble entire buildings brick by brick, little is automated: it’s the informal sector that keeps India going. And many of these essential, poorly paid and often unsafe jobs are done outdoors.
The cost of inaction
While we know that this state of affairs makes people socially and financially vulnerable, mounting evidence shows that this is also a tremendous weakness in the age of climate change. A new study from the consultancy McKinsey Global Institute quantifies the losses due to an environment that is poised to become inhospitable if the world doesn’t aggressively act to mitigate climate change now.
The report uses a global warming scenario called RCP8.5, which charts a future in which carbon emissions continue unabated, to work out the socioeconomic consequences of inaction on the Asian continent at large, and country by country. To do so, it looks at the heightened risks on five systems: livability and workability, food systems, physical assets, infrastructure services, and natural capital.
It finds that in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation policies, climate change will wreak havoc on Asia like in no other region of the globe. Under this ‘worst case’ scenario, by 2050, between 600 million and one billion people in Asia will be living in areas with a heightened probability of lethal heat waves. To put this into context, the current global total for this indicator is 700 million to 1.2 billion.
This is not just a direct risk to human life, it will disrupt the economy of India and other developing countries in ways that in turn will generate new threats. For example, by 2050, on average, between $2.8 trillion and $4.7 trillion of GDP in Asia will be at risk every year because it will be too hot and too humid to work outdoors. I can testify to the discomfort of the heat plus humidity combination - as Delhi is currently experiencing what we call its ‘pressure cooker phase’, really hot and incredibly wet. These days, thermometers may indicate a perfectly bearable 35C, but the temperature felt may hover around 47C.
Erratic water systems will also play a part. About $1.2 trillion in infrastructure and other physical assets in Asia could be damaged by flooding by 2050. This would be equivalent to about 75 percent of the global impact.
A glimpse of hope
Zooming in to India, which the report groups with its neighbours Bangladesh and Pakistan, the projections are even more severe than in the rest of Asia. And once again, while drought may decline over time, humid heat is the real menace. McKinsey estimates that by 2050, between 500 million and 700 million people in the region may live in places with an annual probability of a lethal heat wave of about 20 percent. This in turn will affect a higher number of people who usually work outdoors, potentially costing somewhere between 7 and 13 percent of the countries’ economy.
Going through these figures on a hot and humid afternoon is disheartening and a little scary: today’s struggle is only a taste of things to come. But the informal economy that puts India at a greater risk could also be its salvation. Its cities are still developing, and families who live in shanty towns today may move to stable homes tomorrow. Wasteful appliances and polluting cars may eventually be replaced by efficient technologies and electric vehicles. As climate change unfolds, many countries will have to dismantle centuries-old infrastructure, built for cooler temperatures at a time when oil was revered. The good news is that while India's climate may be set to change dramatically, it still has the potential to grow in a way that is both resilient and prevents the worst happening.
Must reads from the region:
Climate Change Tracker: India's Uneven Monsoon Rainfall, Bibek Bhattacharya, LiveMint
Due to global warming, the trend of extreme monsoons with long dry spells alternating with very heavy rains is here to stay - a glimpse of a dangerously wet future for India. I highly recommend the entire Climate Change Tracker series.
One Sun, One World, One Grid: All you need to know about mega solar plan, Shreya Jai, Business Standard
In his Independence Day address on August 15, the prime minister Narendra Modi mentioned the project of a trans-national electricity grid supplying solar power across the globe, known as "One Sun, One World, One Grid". What does it take for this dream to become reality? Shreya Jai investigates.
How Coastal Law Was Diluted After Closing It For Public Input, Meenakshi Kapoor, IndiaSpend
Another investigation from one of India’s most authoritative data-led journalism projects. The reporters find that the government made key dilutions in the law that regulates land use along India’s coastline after its draft was closed for public input. These dilutions could have an array of negative environmental impacts on India’s fragile coastal ecosystems.
What does Islam say about climate change and climate action?, Ibrahim Ozdemir, Aljazeera
Many Muslim majority countries bear the brunt of climate change, but their cultural awareness of it and climate action are often limited. A movement of "Islamic environmentalism" based on Islamic tradition - rather than imported "white saviour" environmentalism based on first-world political campaigns - can address both.
What else I have been reading:
Facebook’s Hate-Speech Rules Collide With Indian Politics ($), Newley Purnell and Jeff Horwitz, Wall Street Journal
Not a climate change story, but definitely the scoop of the month here in India. Reporters at the Wall Street journal reported that Facebook failed to apply its hate speech rules to leaders of the ruling party BJP in India, despite them inciting racial and religious hatred at a time when social tensions are at all time high in India. This has sparked a heated debate nationwide and calls for a parliamentary investigation from the opposition party.
Who we are
From A Climate Correspondent is a weekly newsletter run by four journalists exploring the climate crisis from around the globe.
Lou Del Bello is an energy and climate journalist based in Delhi, India.
Jocelyn Timperley is a climate journalist based in San José, Costa Rica.
India Bourke is an environment journalist based in London, UK.
Mat Hope is investigative journalist based in Nairobi, Kenya.
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